Reflections on History and Current Affairs: A Cautionary Tale

As my regular readers know, I believe that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. With this in mind, I look— not without some trepidation— at current world affairs.

The Ceasefire in Gaza: A Fragile Peace

Donald Trump is basking in the "glory" of a ceasefire in Gaza, proclaiming an end to war. While I condemn both Israel and Hamas and welcome a long-overdue ceasefire, I am not sanguine about what this foretells. It bears the hallmark of another simplistic solution to a complex problem, one that is likely to unravel.

The 20-point plan appears to be a series of aspirations rather than a well-thought-out plan of action. It suffers immensely from the lack of participation and commitment from all who will need to contribute to delivering a solution. There is no path to a two-state solution and no commitment from Hamas to disarm. We have seen many false dawns in the Middle East. Sadly, I suspect this will be yet another.

Historical Parallels: Lessons from the Past

There is an unsettling similarity between today and events back in 2005 when Israel "disengaged," leaving Gaza to become a dystopian territory rife with corruption, rival militias, criminal gangs, and warring clans. Now, the Palestinians are being marginalized, and there is a real potential that internal power struggles and the settling of old scores will exacerbate the situation.

We are simply stoking the fire if, in seeking a solution, we underestimate the power of family groups such as the well-armed Dughmush clan in Gaza City and the al-Majayda clan in parts of Khan Younis. The Dughmush family, which previously led the Popular Resistance Committee's armed wing in Gaza City and later formed the "Army of Islam," which supported the Islamic State terrorist group, leads a coalition of armed Palestinian groups opposed to conciliation with Israel. The Al Majayda clan has different affiliations, including Fatah and Hamas.

We are not just dealing with Hamas, nor merely Hamas and Fatah; other militant groups will undoubtedly shape how Gaza is governed. Should this situation escalate, it would be disastrous for the Palestinians and their cause. It would also provide Netanyahu and his extremists with a ready excuse to try to finish what they have started.

The Two-State Solution: A Distant Dream

A two-state solution, which I believe is the crux of any resolution, will remain a misty dream until Netanyahu is gone. As he said in 1999, after sabotaging the Oslo accords, "I'm proud I blocked a Palestinian state." Moreover, we must not forget that America has been complicit in the death of tens of thousands of civilians and the destruction of vast swathes of Gaza by providing weapons to Israel, enabling them to wage asymmetric war and opposing UN ceasefire resolutions. Trump's ability to change his mind on a dime will only feed uncertainty into the process.

My belief, sadly, is that there will be much talking but no peace agreement. Bloodshed will continue, and, continuing with the Trump theme, corruption will mar reconstruction efforts. I expect Israel will persist in occupying Palestinian land, building more Jewish settlements in the West Bank in violation of international law. Donald Trump will, as with Ukraine—where he failed to stop Russian aggression after boasting that he could do it on day one of his presidency—continue claiming non-existent triumphs, willingly tolerating and arguably contributing to further bloodshed through both action and inaction.

The Major Gask Mysteries: A Historical Perspective

I am currently working on the release of the fourth book in my Major Gask Mysteries series, The Case of the Hydegild Sacrifice. Set as the American Civil War draws to a close, it involves Gask and Rait working with the Pinkertons as events hurtle towards the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. The obvious rift between the South, slave-owning states, and the North, slave-free states, needs little discussion. This was an inevitable break since 1776 as two cultures became increasingly irreconcilable. However, the skullduggery and political machinations of the time create a rich field for storytelling.

The Civil War forcibly brought the North and South back together but left unresolved cultural differences that persist to this day. The battle at the time between the Radical Republicans and Lincoln's supporters was a festering boil in 1865. It was only poisoned further by Lincoln's death and VP Johnson's assumption of the presidency, which was the primary reason for the following hundred years of racial oppression and injustice. This only began to be seriously addressed when another Johnson, LBJ, entered the White House after yet another assassination in this gun-saturated country.

A Reflection on the Present: The Disunited States of America

Today, I see the USA slipping rapidly back to that time. Indeed, I have started thinking of this fair land as the DSA (the Disunited States of America). So long as Trump and acolytes like Miller and Bondi are in power, I can only see things deteriorating. Democracy is withering, inequality and hardship for the average American are increasing, and I despair at where it might lead.

A house divided is a house doomed to fall.

All empires decay and collapse. Egypt, Rome, Persia, Britain, the Soviet Union, and dictatorships—benevolent or otherwise—such as Charlemagne, Genghis Khan, Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini. They collapse under their own weight, rotting from within and falling in the face of a united opposition.

America is not immune. Its only hope lies in recognizing that only as a voluntarily united nation can it succeed. This requires a government that provides equal justice for all people and seeks the well-being of all, not just those in power and the ultra-wealthy few at the top of society, including the technology oligarchs.

As the Declaration of Independence begins, "We, the people..." and as I conclude, "United we stand, divided we fall."